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Q3 2024 ECONOMIC & MARKET UPDATE

November 1, 2024 - Here are five key takeaways from our third-quarter market update:

  1. CAPITAL MARKETS: HighGround's Capstone Fund posted positive returns for the quarter and exceeded its benchmark across all time periods.
    • Global markets closed the quarter with robust returns despite mixed economic indicators, a shift toward monetary easing by key central banks (including the Federal Reserve), and new economic stimulus measures in China.
    • The U.S. dollar weakened sharply, declining 4.8% (ICE U.S. Dollar Index) after a larger-than-expected Fed rate cut and the Bank of Japan's rate hike. Consequently, the yen surged by 12.0%, while the euro rose by 4.1% and the pound +6.1%.

  2. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH:  The U.S. economy grew during the quarter, driven by resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market. However, mixed economic signals persist. While growth in the services sector remains steady, U.S. manufacturing contracted, reflecting slower business activity and weaker demand.

  3. U.S. INFLATION: Inflation eased considerably, with headline U.S. inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reaching a three-year low of 2.4% year-over-year. Shelter (rent) continues to be the largest contributor to inflation, rising 4.9% over the past year and contributing 65% of the core CPI increase (excluding food and energy). Other notable increases include motor vehicle insurance (+16.3%) and medical care (+3.3%).

  4. U.S. LABOR MARKET: The U.S. labor market, while still healthy, is showing signs of softening as evidenced by several months of increasing unemployment rates, ending the quarter at 4.1%.

  5. GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: Global economic activity during the quarter was mixed as the service sector continued to drive growth. However, a deepening downturn in manufacturing, especially in Europe and Japan, hampered overall growth.


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